Thursday, July 20, 2006

Equity Bank Listing: the facts

The announcement by Equity Bank that their shares will trade on the NSE beginning 7th August has surprised many, mostly because they have refused to sell new shares to an expecting public. The bank may have been motivated to take this path for several reasons:-
Fear to Dilute the stake of anchor shareholders
The bank's ownership structure now stands as: IFC & AFRICAP 18%, BRITAK 12% OTHERS 75%. If the bank was to float new shares, they would have to reduce the stakes of these three. This must have been a scaring prospect for these shareholders as they would like to maintain the control they now have over the bank
CMA , NSE & brokers' fees
By avoiding to list new shares, the bank have deftly avoided a subtantial chunk of the fees payable to these institutions while at the same getting to trade at the NSE. They have also managed to escpe to pay fees to a myriad of market operatives including brokers, lawyers, agents (read banks). In the Scanad IPO which is much smaller, this is a hefty 70m Kshs. Equity's would have hit nearly 200m in fees alone.

EQuity's Future
The bank appears to be on a positive growth momentum in the short term. In the year ended 2005, they surpursed the phsycological 500m mark in profits. This ensures they join the league of the top 6 big banks by way of profits. They were crowned the third best bank in kenya on the MI finacial sector survey 2006.

Unique Market Niche
The bank has carved out a distinct and unique market for itself in micofinance. No other institution other than the fast expanding Family Finance has been able to duplicate their business model. Most important is thier unconvetional way of assessing risk. Instead of using, the famous land, assets and collateral method, equity simply uses a client's account history or group credit. This has proved to be hugely sucessful. They have also attracted the trust of small depositors in the urban and rural areas thereby bringing in much needed chep deposits for onward lending.

Support from Wordbank
The world bank is the largest shareholder with a stake of 18% throgh their private investment arm, IFC and AFRICAP. This investment appears to have been motivated by the desire to support microfinace in the developing world. In return this has given Equity the legitimacy and 'credit worthiness' to attract attention and investments from other institutions and high net worth individuals.

However, there are many risks which may dampen investors appetite forEquity shares.
Lack of capacity to serve all customers adequatly
Equity has over 500,000 active customers (source, equity annual report 2005). With all these coming in for basic services like deposits and withdrawals every now and then, they risk being unable to service them fast and efficiently. The solution perhaps lies in what Equity CEO, James Mwangi is trying to do; install and IT platform to handle basic services. Already, the bank has invested over Kshs. 600m in an IT system from Infosys of India together with more than 50 ATMs now installed in many towns. However, this appears not to be working as there are still vey long ques at the bank as late as today, many months after the installation of the ATMs. Looking at these ques, one sees many customers lining up to do basic functions including cash deposits and withdrawals, instead of going to the ATMS. Perhaps the bank may consider launching a customer education drive to go hand in hand with their roll out of ATMs. If this is not sorted out, theese customers may run to other upcoming institutions like family finance and Co-op bank.

Provisions for Bad Debts
Many analysts believe that Equity's formula for bad debts provision is inadequate. Loans that would have been classified as 'bad' in other major banks are still 'performing' in equity's book. This raises a dark cloud over the future of the bank. Central bank's initial delay in issuing Equity with a formal banking license till 2004 is seen in this light. Cosidering Kenya's history of bad debts, this is the biggest risk facing investors

OPPORTUNITIES FOR INVESTORS
Capital growth and dividends
Equity's shares are in huge demand. This is best illustrated by most investors who are visinting brokers and agents now. they have been heard to say that they prefer Equity shares to Scangroup, not knowing that the former is not issuing new shares to the public. With this demand, and the ongoing growth across the board, the shares are likly to continue gaining at the NSE upon lisiting thus creating value to shareholders. In addition, the bank has maintained a generous dividend payout history which they're expected to maintain.

Need for additional capital
The bank has a capital base of Kshs. 1.8bn. Under the CBK Rules, this allows them to take deposits of up to Kshs. 23bn . Their deposits are growing at 30% p.a. If they maintain this kind of growth, then they will have to raise additional capital in 2009 so as to meet the CBK requirements. The deposits with then have hit Kshs. 25bn. This will be an opportunity for investors to participate i a rights issue to raise the funds.

Take
In the foregoing i consider these shares a good buy

133 Comments:

Anonymous SIJUI said...

BRAVO, BRAVO for the analysis. I think though it is hogwash, all this talk about their classification of bad debts! They have brilliantly analyzed the credit worthiness of their clientele by taking in to account important intangibles that big banks continously ignore: collective peer pressure and motivation to repay, disciplined savings culture albeit comprised of small amounts, informal assets i.e. Mama Mboga/Jua Kali entrepreneurs.......and rightfully adjudged them as fully performing accounts since their risk is spread out not just to the principal and their immediate holdings, but also to the signatories who guaranteed it. Big banks can only whine about the ingenuity of such a scheme :)

7:10 PM  
Anonymous sijui said...

I also consider it an excellent tactic avoiding dilution of shares. Avoids the trap of an institutional investor mutiny!!! Let the hardworking wananchi who are small shareholders reap all the benefits, after all the success has mostly come off the sweat from their backs.

7:14 PM  
Blogger gathinga said...

sijui, i beg to differ a little about bad debts scenerio. Their risk analysis methods are indeed ingenious. However, my point is that precisely because of this uniqueness, it would be imposible for anyone else other than the bank to tell which debt is non-performing. and you bet management of every bank have an incentive to downplay the bad debts as it is direct hit on profits.

In convenetional banking, there is a clear criteria for identifying bad debts......and management does not retain the discretion for such clasification.

In Equity, management is the judge and the jury!

1:26 PM  
Blogger Ken said...

Gathinga K-rep has a development agency division which engages in microfinance using quite similar tactics. Their's is infact more complex as they target hiv positive people.

Now since ICDC own a considerable stock in krep, Whats your take especially since they may opt to list it in the market. (I answered a querry you had raised in one of bankelele's posts with a link to their reports and a possible share issue)

3:37 PM  
Blogger gathinga said...

ken,
do you think icdc wuld like to list krep? icdc track record is such thaty they are never keen to list firms under their stable...rather they prefer to retain huge stakes so as to earn good dividend payouts.. look at
AON, UAP Insurance, General Motors, Cocacola. these are firms where icdc has had more than 25% stakes for a long time now. there is no intention to list...unless the initiative is coming from other anchor shareholders.

regarding k-rep's business model, i they are far more risk cautious than equity. for them, group credit is king....and when they lend to businesses, they demand to see a track record of performance. because of this caution, their growth has been much slower compared to equity....but sure

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Blogger Ken said...

ICDC may not be listing all their firms but they have capex issues ans they would like to get in on more ventures.
They either have to list some of their firms or come up with a share offer of some sort.
Did you get their half year results ?

11:40 AM  
Blogger gathinga said...

ken...saw thier half year results.solid performance. Last year there was a resolution passed at the agm to increase the authorised share capital. I think they will offer these additional shares this year in some rights issue. the way i see it, the increase in authorised share capital was a preparation for eventual rights issue or a public issue.

12:51 PM  
Blogger bankelele said...

i am not touching Equity at 70/= per share.

7:35 AM  
Blogger coldtusker said...

Is it possible to get the annual report or prospectus online? I perfer the full prospectus or "Memorandum of Information" as they call it...

5:48 PM  
Blogger gathinga said...

am told this prospectus will be out sometime next week..hope youre talking of equity

1:45 PM  
Blogger coldtusker said...

Yes. I would like an online version of Equity MoI. The recent press has piqued my interest...

James Mwangi's 7% problem.
Director resigns just before the listing.
The lead brokers/advisers have a market value of 70/- whereas they trade on the OTC for over 90/-
Asset quality questions/concerns i.e. bad debts not provided for?
A mwananchi bank to show that the "small man" should NOT be ignored!

Hmmm...

This is going to be one volatile stock.

2:29 PM  
Blogger gathinga said...

am keeping my fingers closed... not touchinh it kfor six months till stabilisation..............11

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